Currency Outlooks and Scenarios
81 articles
UBS and Crédit Agricole clash over peso's 2027 path
UBS projects a stronger Mexican peso by September 2027, while Crédit Agricole expects the currency to weaken. The banks' opposing forecasts expose deep uncertainty around Mexico's exchange rate outlook.
NZ Dollar Struggles as Inflation and Rate Bets Split Investors
Crédit Agricole expects the New Zealand dollar to recover against the US dollar, citing inflation risks and strong farm exports. Persistent US dollar demand and a cautious central bank keep traders divided.
Australian Dollar faces policy split as inflation data challenges RBA outlook
Australia's next inflation report could decide whether the Reserve Bank moves again this year or waits, with the Australian Dollar caught between Westpac's call for a November hike and rivals urging caution
Chinese Yuan Rally Stalls as Rabobank Sees Modest Gains Ahead
Rabobank now expects only slight gains for the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar in the coming year. The bank points to recent appreciation, slower growth, and limited policy easing as reasons for a pause.
Euro Holds Ground as Deutsche Bank Rejects Dollar Breakout
Deutsche Bank is sticking to its year-end euro dollar forecast, even as the euro faces pressure. The bank cites steady global growth and limited US rate hikes as reasons to expect the euro to stay in its usual range.
UBS shifts peso forecast as Mexico's rate edge fades
UBS now sees the USD/MXN at 17.50 by year-end, dialing back expectations for a peso rebound as Mexico's rate advantage over the US shrinks and global markets shift.
Abu Dhabi First Bank targets Asia trade with Singapore summit
Abu Dhabi First Bank wrapped up its third Middle East Asia Summit in Singapore, where capital flows and technology took center stage in talks about reshaping trade and investment between the two regions.
Canadian dollar faces tough road as US rate gap and trade strains linger
CIBC Capital Markets warns the Canadian dollar will stay weak as US-Canada rate differences grow and trade friction drags on. Relief for CAD may not come until 2027, according to new forecasts.
US dollar stays strong as oil price slide fails to shake Fed outlook
The US dollar keeps its edge despite oil prices dropping below key levels. Analysts say Federal Reserve policy is still the main force in currency markets, while the euro struggles as central bank paths diverge.
Mexican peso set for 9% drop against US dollar, says Crédit Agricole
Crédit Agricole expects the Mexican peso to lose about 9% of its value against the US dollar by the end of 2027. The bank's forecast points to a shift in currency trends across Latin America.
Euro slips as Rabobank cuts short-term forecast against dollar
Rabobank now sees the euro dropping to 1.14 against the US dollar within a month. The bank points to steady Fed rate hike bets and ongoing geopolitical risks, but says a rebound to 1.16 is possible if US tightening slows.
Indian rupee stays under pressure as RBI reserves grow
MUFG and Goldman Sachs expect the Indian rupee to keep weakening against the US dollar through 2027. The RBI's bigger reserves help steady the currency but aren't enough to stop the slide.
Euro stuck near lows as US rate edge grows
The euro can't shake off losses after the US Federal Reserve's latest rate hike. Softer ECB outlook and a shrinking yield gap are making it tough for EUR/USD to bounce back.
Deutsche Bank signals further dollar weakness against yuan and yen
Deutsche Bank forecasts continued US dollar losses against the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen, while anticipating the euro dollar rate will stay confined to a narrow range as global growth and policy risks influence currency markets.
Swiss Franc Under Pressure as Yield Gap with Euro Widens
UBS warns the Swiss franc could weaken further against the euro as low yields and diverging central bank policies push EURCHF higher. If the Swiss National Bank keeps rates steady, a move toward 0.96 is possible.
Swiss Franc Becomes New Favorite for Low-Cost Borrowing
With Swiss rates at zero and Japan preparing for possible hikes, investors are turning to the franc as a funding currency. Rabobank sees limited gains for USDCHF but warns of risks if safe haven demand returns.
Dollar Stalls Despite Fed Rate Hike Bets as Market Doubts Persist
Despite strong expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, Bank of America forecasts the US dollar will remain rangebound through the end of the year as mixed policy signals and global repricing undermine its momentum
Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Faces Crucial Test After Fed Decision
The euro may approach its summer highs if the Federal Reserve signals a softer stance, but ongoing geopolitical and energy risks could limit the dollar's decline and keep the EUR/USD outlook uncertain.
Swiss Franc Slips as Dollar Gains Ahead of Fed Meeting
The Swiss Franc is under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens before the Federal Reserve's September meeting, with investors watching for a possible rate hike and shifting global yields.
UBS Sees Yuan Strengthening as Dollar Weakens: USD/CNY Could Hit 6.50 by 2027
UBS expects the US dollar to fall further against the Chinese yuan, projecting a USD/CNY rate of 6.50 by mid-2027 as strong exports and policy support outweigh low inflation and interest rate differences.
Australian Rate Hike Expectations Shift as RBA Faces Inflation Risks
Goldman Sachs now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its policy rate to 4.60 percent this month after senior officials warned of persistent inflation risks and higher oil prices, accelerating the timeline for potential borrowing cost increases
Pound Sterling Faces Renewed Pressure as US Jobs Data Shifts Dollar Outlook
A sharp US jobs surprise has tilted the pound-to-dollar exchange rate toward further losses, with technical signals and policy risks now pointing to a possible retreat toward the 100-day average. Here is what is driving the shift and what to watch next
Latin American Currencies Draw Global Capital Despite Economic Risks
High-yielding currencies like the Colombian peso, Brazilian real, and Mexican peso continue to attract international capital through carry trades, even as underlying economic fundamentals remain mixed and policy risks persist
Dollar-Yen Returns Above 160 as Japan's Record Intervention Falters
Japan's largest-ever currency intervention has failed to keep the yen from weakening, with the dollar-yen rate climbing back above 160. Analysts warn that without policy changes, further interventions may have only short-lived effects
Pound Sterling Faces Downside Risk Against Euro as Forecasts Shift
A new survey of major investment banks suggests the pound is overvalued against the euro, with forecasts pointing to a potential 300-pip decline by year-end. Currency planners and businesses may need to prepare for a weaker GBP/EUR rate
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