Currency Outlooks and Scenarios
70 articles
Indian rupee stays under pressure as RBI reserves grow
MUFG and Goldman Sachs expect the Indian rupee to keep weakening against the US dollar through 2027. The RBI's bigger reserves help steady the currency but aren't enough to stop the slide.
Euro stuck near lows as US rate edge grows
The euro can't shake off losses after the US Federal Reserve's latest rate hike. Softer ECB outlook and a shrinking yield gap are making it tough for EUR/USD to bounce back.
Deutsche Bank signals further dollar weakness against yuan and yen
Deutsche Bank forecasts continued US dollar losses against the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen, while anticipating the euro dollar rate will stay confined to a narrow range as global growth and policy risks influence currency markets.
Swiss Franc Under Pressure as Yield Gap with Euro Widens
UBS warns the Swiss franc could weaken further against the euro as low yields and diverging central bank policies push EURCHF higher. If the Swiss National Bank keeps rates steady, a move toward 0.96 is possible.
Swiss Franc Becomes New Favorite for Low-Cost Borrowing
With Swiss rates at zero and Japan preparing for possible hikes, investors are turning to the franc as a funding currency. Rabobank sees limited gains for USDCHF but warns of risks if safe haven demand returns.
Dollar Stalls Despite Fed Rate Hike Bets as Market Doubts Persist
Despite strong expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, Bank of America forecasts the US dollar will remain rangebound through the end of the year as mixed policy signals and global repricing undermine its momentum
Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Faces Crucial Test After Fed Decision
The euro may approach its summer highs if the Federal Reserve signals a softer stance, but ongoing geopolitical and energy risks could limit the dollar's decline and keep the EUR/USD outlook uncertain.
Swiss Franc Slips as Dollar Gains Ahead of Fed Meeting
The Swiss Franc is under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens before the Federal Reserve's September meeting, with investors watching for a possible rate hike and shifting global yields.
UBS Sees Yuan Strengthening as Dollar Weakens: USD/CNY Could Hit 6.50 by 2027
UBS expects the US dollar to fall further against the Chinese yuan, projecting a USD/CNY rate of 6.50 by mid-2027 as strong exports and policy support outweigh low inflation and interest rate differences.
Australian Rate Hike Expectations Shift as RBA Faces Inflation Risks
Goldman Sachs now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its policy rate to 4.60 percent this month after senior officials warned of persistent inflation risks and higher oil prices, accelerating the timeline for potential borrowing cost increases
Pound Sterling Faces Renewed Pressure as US Jobs Data Shifts Dollar Outlook
A sharp US jobs surprise has tilted the pound-to-dollar exchange rate toward further losses, with technical signals and policy risks now pointing to a possible retreat toward the 100-day average. Here is what is driving the shift and what to watch next
Latin American Currencies Draw Global Capital Despite Economic Risks
High-yielding currencies like the Colombian peso, Brazilian real, and Mexican peso continue to attract international capital through carry trades, even as underlying economic fundamentals remain mixed and policy risks persist
Dollar-Yen Returns Above 160 as Japan's Record Intervention Falters
Japan's largest-ever currency intervention has failed to keep the yen from weakening, with the dollar-yen rate climbing back above 160. Analysts warn that without policy changes, further interventions may have only short-lived effects
Pound Sterling Faces Downside Risk Against Euro as Forecasts Shift
A new survey of major investment banks suggests the pound is overvalued against the euro, with forecasts pointing to a potential 300-pip decline by year-end. Currency planners and businesses may need to prepare for a weaker GBP/EUR rate
Rupee Outlook: MUFG Sees USD/INR Near 94 as RBI Reserves Grow
Analysts expect the Indian rupee to approach 94 against the US dollar in the coming months, supported by strong Reserve Bank of India inflows, before renewed oil and yield pressures could push the rate higher again
Citi Sees Japanese Yen Poised for Long-Term Appreciation
Citi expects the Japanese yen's long period of weakness to reverse as improved capital flows and renewed overseas investment in Japanese equities shift the balance of supply and demand, with implications for the USD/JPY exchange rate outlook
Canadian Dollar Faces Trade War Scenarios as CIBC Sets Limits
CIBC Capital Markets outlines three possible paths for the Canadian dollar as trade tensions with the US escalate, projecting that even in the most severe case, losses will be contained and the USD/CAD rate will not exceed 1.41
Chinese Yuan Strengthens as Exporters and Policy Shift Outlook
The Chinese yuan has quietly become one of Asia's stronger currencies in 2026, with the USD/CNY rate nearing 6.72 and major banks now forecasting further appreciation. Exporter flows and policy signals are reshaping expectations for the year ahead
Dollar Faces Ongoing Pressure Ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech
Citi expects the US dollar's recent weakness to persist despite upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing valuation and market positioning as key risks rather than a sudden policy shift
Euro to Dollar Outlook: Trendline Break Signals Further Gains Possible
The euro has broken its year-long downtrend against the US dollar, trading above key technical levels. Analysts expect a period of consolidation before the next move, with inflation data and central bank signals in focus.
Pound Faces Pressure as Australian Inflation Data Looms
The Pound-to-Australian Dollar rate is testing a key support after six weeks of narrowing moves, with upcoming Australian inflation figures expected to determine whether the pair breaks lower or finds relief
US Dollar Faces Pressure as Treasury and Fed Policy Scrutinized
The US dollar is under renewed pressure as investors question whether Treasury bond buybacks and the Federal Reserve's policy stance could undermine confidence in American economic management, with implications for global exchange rates
US Dollar Faces Pressure as BCA Research Favors Asian and European Currencies
BCA Research signals a shift away from the US dollar, highlighting weakening real yields and reduced foreign investment as reasons to favor the South Korean won, Japanese yen, Taiwan dollar, Singapore dollar, and euro
Euro to Dollar Forecast Revised as US Debt Concerns Weigh on USD
Analysts at Rabobank have raised their short-term outlook for the euro against the US dollar, bringing forward their 1.18 EUR/USD target as worries over US government debt and Treasury markets put pressure on the dollar's safe-haven status
Australian Dollar Holds Yield Advantage Over New Zealand Dollar
Diverging interest-rate expectations and energy market dynamics are giving the Australian dollar a relative edge against the New Zealand dollar, but market positioning and inflation risks could trigger sharp reversals
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