Currency Outlooks and Scenarios
58 articles
Dollar-Yen Returns Above 160 as Japan's Record Intervention Falters
Japan's largest-ever currency intervention has failed to keep the yen from weakening, with the dollar-yen rate climbing back above 160. Analysts warn that without policy changes, further interventions may have only short-lived effects
Pound Sterling Faces Downside Risk Against Euro as Forecasts Shift
A new survey of major investment banks suggests the pound is overvalued against the euro, with forecasts pointing to a potential 300-pip decline by year-end. Currency planners and businesses may need to prepare for a weaker GBP/EUR rate
Rupee Outlook: MUFG Sees USD/INR Near 94 as RBI Reserves Grow
Analysts expect the Indian rupee to approach 94 against the US dollar in the coming months, supported by strong Reserve Bank of India inflows, before renewed oil and yield pressures could push the rate higher again
Citi Sees Japanese Yen Poised for Long-Term Appreciation
Citi expects the Japanese yen's long period of weakness to reverse as improved capital flows and renewed overseas investment in Japanese equities shift the balance of supply and demand, with implications for the USD/JPY exchange rate outlook
Canadian Dollar Faces Trade War Scenarios as CIBC Sets Limits
CIBC Capital Markets outlines three possible paths for the Canadian dollar as trade tensions with the US escalate, projecting that even in the most severe case, losses will be contained and the USD/CAD rate will not exceed 1.41
Chinese Yuan Strengthens as Exporters and Policy Shift Outlook
The Chinese yuan has quietly become one of Asia's stronger currencies in 2026, with the USD/CNY rate nearing 6.72 and major banks now forecasting further appreciation. Exporter flows and policy signals are reshaping expectations for the year ahead
Dollar Faces Ongoing Pressure Ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech
Citi expects the US dollar's recent weakness to persist despite upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing valuation and market positioning as key risks rather than a sudden policy shift
Euro to Dollar Outlook: Trendline Break Signals Further Gains Possible
The euro has broken its year-long downtrend against the US dollar, trading above key technical levels. Analysts expect a period of consolidation before the next move, with inflation data and central bank signals in focus.
Pound Faces Pressure as Australian Inflation Data Looms
The Pound-to-Australian Dollar rate is testing a key support after six weeks of narrowing moves, with upcoming Australian inflation figures expected to determine whether the pair breaks lower or finds relief
US Dollar Faces Pressure as Treasury and Fed Policy Scrutinized
The US dollar is under renewed pressure as investors question whether Treasury bond buybacks and the Federal Reserve's policy stance could undermine confidence in American economic management, with implications for global exchange rates
US Dollar Faces Pressure as BCA Research Favors Asian and European Currencies
BCA Research signals a shift away from the US dollar, highlighting weakening real yields and reduced foreign investment as reasons to favor the South Korean won, Japanese yen, Taiwan dollar, Singapore dollar, and euro
Euro to Dollar Forecast Revised as US Debt Concerns Weigh on USD
Analysts at Rabobank have raised their short-term outlook for the euro against the US dollar, bringing forward their 1.18 EUR/USD target as worries over US government debt and Treasury markets put pressure on the dollar's safe-haven status
Australian Dollar Holds Yield Advantage Over New Zealand Dollar
Diverging interest-rate expectations and energy market dynamics are giving the Australian dollar a relative edge against the New Zealand dollar, but market positioning and inflation risks could trigger sharp reversals
NZD/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD Face Key Tests as Policy Shifts Loom
The New Zealand, Japanese, and Australian currency pairs are set for heightened volatility as central bank meetings, inflation data, and shifting global capital flows drive market direction in the coming week
UBS Maintains Neutral View on Yen as Policy Gap Persists
UBS continues to hold a neutral outlook on the Japanese yen, citing the ongoing divergence between Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policies, and expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to remain elevated in the coming years
Sterling's Yield Edge Drives Pound Higher Against Euro
The British pound is forecast to gain further ground against the euro as investors respond to its yield advantage and recent economic stability, but political risks and European recovery could still alter the outlook
NZD/USD Outlook Strengthens as Bank of America Cites RBNZ Policy
Bank of America highlights the New Zealand dollar's prospects against the US dollar, citing a hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and global food supply risks as key factors shaping its latest currency outlook
Rupee Faces Oil Pressure as RBI Intervention Caps USD/INR Rise
Analysts expect the Reserve Bank of India to limit rupee losses against the US dollar in the coming quarters, but high oil prices and global risks could test the central bank's ability to maintain stability
Pound Sterling Faces Heightened Risk as UK Bond Yields Climb
The British pound is increasingly exposed to global bond market volatility, with UK government debt and inflation-linked bonds amplifying the impact of rising yields on sterling's value and the country's fiscal outlook
Norwegian Krone Faces Pressure as Swedish Krona Gains Momentum
Bank of America highlights diverging economic trends and shifting interest rate expectations as key reasons for recommending a sell position on the Norwegian krone against the Swedish krona, with potential implications for cross-border payments and currency risk
Euro Edges Higher Against Pound as UK Labour Market Softens
The Euro to Pound exchange rate is approaching ING's 0.8570 target as UK employment and wage growth slow, raising questions about further Bank of England rate hikes and Sterling's near-term support
US Treasury Buyback Expansion Raises Dollar Weakness Risks
The US Treasury's decision to double its long-end buyback operations is drawing comparisons to past Federal Reserve interventions, with analysts warning of potential further declines for the US dollar as market dynamics shift.
Australian Dollar and Swedish Krona Stand Out in G10 Currency Outlook
Morgan Stanley's latest G10 currency scorecard singles out the Australian Dollar and Swedish Krona for bullish prospects, while the US Dollar, Pound, and Yen face renewed pressure as central banks pause and market risks shift
HSBC Sees Pound Sterling Vulnerable Against US Dollar
HSBC analysts warn that the British pound could weaken further against the US dollar as market expectations for Bank of England rate hikes diverge from the central bank's own guidance, with economic and policy factors weighing on sterling
Indonesian Rupiah Faces Ongoing Pressure as USD/IDR Forecast Rises
The Indonesian Rupiah is expected to weaken further against the US Dollar through mid-2027, as persistent trade deficits and rising oil import costs challenge Bank Indonesia's efforts to stabilise the currency
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