China's 14 October releases will test the Yuan's resilience as the Dollar firms. Forecasts point to higher September prices, while trade data will offer a fresh read on import demand.
On 13 October, the People's Bank of China set its daily reference rate at 6.7298 Yuan per Dollar. The rate was 7.4935 per euro and 4.2411 per 100 Japanese yen.
BNP Paribas said USD/CNY had earlier reached 6.7330, its strongest level since 2023. The Yuan had gained 5.7% against the CFETS basket since the start of 2026. The PBOC's official fixing notice records the 13 October rates.
The currency is holding up against a stronger US Dollar. Wednesday's figures will test whether that strength has support beyond export earnings and Beijing's tolerance for appreciation.
European officials are pressing China over its trade surplus as the PBOC defends its currency approach. Earlier episodes of broad Dollar weakness offer a useful contrast: earlier dollar coverage examined a move driven by a weak US jobs report. The current test is whether China's domestic numbers can reinforce the Yuan's gains.
China's September trade figures are due Wednesday, 14 October. A Reuters poll put median expectations for export growth at 25.5% year on year, after 25% growth in August. Imports were forecast to rise 24.5%, down from 28.2%.
The expected trade surplus was $118.10 billion, compared with $119.09 billion in August. Reuters also reported that China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8. New orders and output returned to expansion territory.
Those estimates offer a fresh measure of the balance between external demand and domestic activity. Export receipts can add to foreign-currency supply when companies exchange Dollars for Yuan. Import growth, meanwhile, offers a read on domestic demand.
Reuters reported that China's annual trade surplus could exceed $1 trillion for a second consecutive year. The reported 2025 surplus was nearly $1.2 trillion, around 6% of GDP.
Prices and demand in focus
China's official release calendar schedules September consumer and producer prices for 14 October 2026. Crédit Agricole's 9 October calendar puts consensus CPI inflation at 1.1%, up from 0.8%. It forecasts producer-price inflation at 4.4%, compared with 3.8%. These are expectations, not reported results.
Faster producer-price inflation would show that factories are charging more. On its own, it would not establish that households and businesses are spending more. The trade release matters here: stronger Chinese imports would point more clearly to firmer domestic demand than a large surplus alone. That would also offer a more direct positive signal for Australia's export outlook.
What is supporting the Yuan
MUFG's Derek Halpenny reads recent PBOC daily fixes as evidence that policymakers are allowing the Yuan to strengthen despite broader Dollar gains. In his assessment, the Dollar Index, or DXY, had climbed 3.3% from its September low. The Dollar against a basket of Asian currencies was up just 0.7%. EUR/CNY stood 10% below its January high, marking a substantial move in the bilateral rate.
Export receipts may also support the Yuan when companies exchange Dollars for it. Nomura identified exporter conversions as a source of demand in July. But the size of China's trade surplus does not show how much foreign-currency revenue exporters actually convert. UBS lists trade data for the same day; the previous month's surplus was $119.09 billion.
A large surplus can coexist with weak local demand. Its composition matters as much as its headline size.
Trade policy and currency value
On 8 October, the PBOC rejected claims that China had used competitive currency devaluation to support exports, saying the country had never pursued such a policy. The bank attributed China's trade strength chiefly to industrial competitiveness. Reuters reported that the Yuan had gained about 4% against the Dollar since the beginning of 2026, despite a widening US-China yield gap. Since the 2005 exchange-rate reform, it has strengthened from 8.27 to around 6.7 per Dollar.
Halpenny sees the PBOC's position as evidence that Beijing is not preparing to abandon its currency approach. He considers the Yuan undervalued, while noting that estimates of the scale differ and that exchange rates explain only part of China's export strength.
Nominal exchange-rate gains have not fully reversed the Yuan's earlier fall in inflation-adjusted, trade-weighted value. Halpenny says the index dropped 20% from its 2022 high to last year's low, then recovered 6.5% by the time of his assessment. IMF estimates put the Yuan's undervaluation in a 12% to 20% range, which he describes as close to consensus.
Trade negotiations add pressure. On 9 October, China and the European Union reached an understanding intended to halve Chinese hybrid-vehicle exports to the EU. The agreement followed European concerns over a goods-trade deficit exceeding €1 billion a day. The dispute also involves industrial overcapacity and Chinese export restrictions on rare earths and other critical minerals.
Reuters reported that EU imports of Chinese plug-in hybrids had risen 86% in the year to September, while average prices fell 20%. Battery-electric vehicle shipments increased 40%. The vehicle understanding addresses one part of the dispute; the broader trade imbalance remains on the agenda.
A trade-weighted currency index measures the Yuan against a group of trading partners rather than against one currency, such as the Dollar or euro. Adjusting that measure for inflation tracks relative price competitiveness alongside the nominal exchange rate. A rising bilateral rate therefore does not by itself show that earlier losses in broader purchasing-power terms have been erased. China's official calendar schedules the September inflation releases for 14 October 2026.
